Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty just released the Cromford mid-month report that looks back and analyzes the previous month’s pricing and reports on how well their forecasting techniques performed.  Cromford also forecasts pricing over the next month.

For the monthly period ending May 15, Cromford is recording a sales $/SF of $142.50 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database.  That’s up 1.8% from the $139.96 measured for April 15.  The forecast range midpoint was $141.77 so last month’s forecast was reasonably accurate.

On May 15, the pending listings for all areas and types shows an average list $/SF of $145.07, 1.0% above April 15.  Cromford’s mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on May 15 is $143.93, 1.0% higher than the May 15 reading.  Cromford has a 90% confidence it’ll fall within the range of $141.05 to $146.81.

In most years, prices progress between March and June so Cromford thinks it’s reasonable to expect a strong advance between April 15 to June 15.  At the same time, Cromford expects a retreat between June 15 and September 15, again, a seasonal pattern.