Market Summary Update
Months of Supply
The market is shifting, meaning “months of supply” should increase. Russ Lyon Sotheby’s is monitoring this very closely. Months of supply takes into account the time it takes to sell available inventory at the monthly sales rate as it is right now if no new listings pop up. The market cools if this continues to go on for a while.
If we look at UCB and CCBS listings, months of supply for a balanced market is 4 to 5 months. Without these listings, then we’re looking at 3 to 4 months for a balanced market. Russ Lyon emphasizes the numbers are usually much higher for areas with more expensive homes. For example, Paradise Valley is 12 to 15 months; Scottsdale 6 to 7 months; Gold Canyon 7 to 8 months; Cave Creek 6 to 7 months; and Fountain Hills 7 to 8 months. Again, this does not include UCB and CCBS listings.
For single-family detached months of supply, including UCB and CCBS listings, Paradise Valley is at 10.2 (a year ago 3.5); Scottsdale 4.4 (in Aug 2021 1.1); Chandler & Gilbert 3.3 (1.0 and 0.9 last year); Phoenix and Mesa 3.2 (1.1 and 1.0 a year ago). As you can see, listings have moved from extremely low to more normal values in just a year.
It used to be the boundaries between a buyers and sellers market was approximately a 6-month supply but now it’s more like 3 to 4 months and about 7 months to 18 months in more expensive cities.
Market Summary - August
At the beginning of this month, Russ Lyon Sotheby’s noticed active listings (excluding UCB & CCBS) were almost 18,000, up 152.7% from last year and 24.6% from last month. Including UCB & CCBS, active listings were over 20,700, up almost 90% from last year and over 20% higher than last month. Pending listings were down about 27% from last year and just over 8% from last month.
The monthly median sales price for homes for the market as a whole in early August was $452,500, up from $400,000 at this time last year, an increase of over 13%. Russ Lyon observed slightly lower new listings. Regardless, they’re arriving faster than demand can keep up. That means active listings without a contract have grown 25% in just one month. However, high-end homes are not seeing the same increase.
The problem is demand. Closed sales plummeted 24% since June and are almost 33% lower than last year. Listings under contract slipped more than 8% from last month.
As a Russ Lyon Sotheby’s top agent I want you to keep in mind that prices are reacting faster to market conditions. But there will always be competition for the best homes.
If you have any questions or would like a personalized valuation on your home, please don't hesitate to ask.